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HURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001
 
KAREN IS BEGINNING THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME 
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. SATELLITE T-NUMBERS ARE JUST 
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE AT 65 KTS WHICH 
WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. 
 
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS KAREN HAS MADE SEVERAL TWISTS AND TURNS AND
SHORT TERM ACCELERATIONS AND DECELERATIONS WITH THE NET 24 HOUR
MOTION BEING 020/07...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR
THIS PACKAGE.  THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
EVENTUALLY PICK UP KAREN AND ACCELERATE HER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE
FIRST 12 HOURS WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK
PROJECTIONS.  A SLOW ACCELERATION BEGINS FROM 12 TO 36 HOURS...
SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT TO THE EAST OF THEIR POSITIONS.


FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 39.5N  63.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 40.5N  62.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 42.8N  62.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 45.3N  61.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     16/1200Z 48.0N  58.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/1200Z 50.0N  52.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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