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HURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2001
KAREN TOOK A LITTLE JOG TO THE RIGHT WITH A MOTION OF 040/08 OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE 12 HOUR MOTION IS 020/08. MOST OF THE
HURRICANE TRACK MODELS LOSE THE CENTER IN 36 HOURS BUT THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
AFTER 24 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72
HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT KEEPS THE SAME GENERAL TRACK
LOCATION.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED. THE GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ABOUT
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KAREN ENCOUNTERS COLD SSTS AND INCREASING
SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST BY 48 HOURS BY WHICH
TIME THE SSTS NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK ARE UNDER 20 DEG C.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 38.3N 63.9W 65 KTS
12HR VT 14/1200Z 39.4N 63.5W 65 KTS
24HR VT 15/0000Z 41.0N 63.4W 60 KTS
36HR VT 15/1200Z 43.1N 63.2W 50 KTS
48HR VT 16/0000Z 46.0N 61.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 17/0000Z 50.0N 54.0W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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