[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2001
 
KAREN TOOK A LITTLE JOG TO THE RIGHT WITH A MOTION OF 040/08 OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE 12 HOUR MOTION IS 020/08.  MOST OF THE 
HURRICANE TRACK MODELS LOSE THE CENTER IN 36 HOURS BUT THE GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST 
AFTER 24 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 
HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT KEEPS THE SAME GENERAL TRACK 
LOCATION.

THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE 
OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ABOUT 
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KAREN ENCOUNTERS COLD SSTS AND INCREASING 
SHEAR.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST BY 48 HOURS BY WHICH 
TIME THE SSTS NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK ARE UNDER 20 DEG C.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 38.3N  63.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 39.4N  63.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 41.0N  63.4W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 43.1N  63.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 46.0N  61.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/0000Z 50.0N  54.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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