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TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2001
 
DVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 
NOW AT 60 KTS...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  IF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM 
THEN KAREN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  THIS... AND THE 
FACT THAT THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES KAREN VERY NEAR HURRICANE FORCE IN 
12 HOURS IS THE BASIS FOR FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO 65 KTS.  THE 
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AFTER 12 HOURS AND 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 015/12.  KAREN IS SLOWLY
ACCELERATING AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP-LAYER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE UNITED
STATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE DIRECTION
OF MOTION OF THE SYSTEM BUT VARIES IN SPEED OF MOTION.  DISCUSSIONS
WITH HPC SUGGEST THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT REFLECT THE CORRECT
INITIAL MOTION AND THAT THEY ARE SLOW.  THIS IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WIND RADII AND THE 12 FOOT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON QUIK-SCAT 
DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 37.0N  64.5W    60 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 38.7N  63.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 41.0N  62.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 43.5N  61.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 46.0N  59.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 50.0N  53.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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