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SUBTROPICAL STORM ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2001
 
THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  A RING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO FORM AROUND THE 
LARGE CENTER...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS FAILED SO FAR IN DEVELOPING ENOUGH 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE.  THEREFORE...IT DESERVES TO STAY AS 
SUBTROPICAL STORM AND NOT TO BE NAMED KAREN AT THIS TIME.  THE 
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE OPORTUNITY TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO TROPICAL 
IN A DAY OR SO...BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  IT IS EXPECTED 
TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...OR A WINTERTIME LOW...IN 72 HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS MOVING ABOUT 015/08 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING 
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND 
NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 34.4N  65.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 35.6N  65.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 37.0N  65.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 39.0N  64.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 41.0N  62.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 44.0N  60.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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