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TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001
 
AHHHHH!!!  LIFE IS GOOD WHEN THE RECON ARRIVES.  THANK YOU AIR FORCE
RESERVE!!  THE RECON FIXED THE CENTER AND FOUND A 55 KT FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE AND VERY CLOSE IN.  THIS TRANSLATES TO A
SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 45 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED
TO THIS VALUE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IS INCREMENTED BY 5 KNOTS OUT TO 48
HOURS...AFTER THAT IT IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE WAS USED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE FORECAST.  WIND 
RADII WERE ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE USING THE RECON VALUES 
ADJUSTED TO THE SURFACE AND ACTUAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...USING THE 
HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS PROGRAM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/18.  AS BEFORE....REASONABLE
AGREEMENT REMAINS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE AVN.  THE
AVN MODEL STILL WANTS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
RECURVE THE SYSTEM OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH TO BE MORE IN LINE 
WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET.  IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...JAMAICA 
WILL BE FACING ANOTHER HURRICANE AGAIN IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
  
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 12.5N  60.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 13.2N  62.6W    50 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N  65.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 14.8N  68.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 15.8N  71.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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