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TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001
 
EVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  TAFB AND SAB
WERE ABOUT A DEGREE APART IN THEIR FIXES.  A QUIK-SCAT PASS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SHOWED NORTHERLY FLOW BUT ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...SUGGESTING A BROADER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE CURRENT CENTER LOCATION ALSO RELIES ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS POSITION.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17.  REASONABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE AVN.  THE AVN MODEL STILL
WANTS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM
OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT A TAD 
TO THE SOUTH.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT BASED UPON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM TAFB... AND 35
KT...T2.5...FROM SAB.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING A
SIMILAR SLOW STRENGTHENING.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 11.7N  58.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 12.2N  60.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 13.2N  64.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 14.0N  67.1W    55 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 14.7N  69.6W    60 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 16.0N  73.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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