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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  IT HAS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  IT LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL
STORM AS INDICATED BY THE TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  THE SYSTEM IS
BEING KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO
PERSIST LONGER.  THE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND THE OCEAN
IS WARM...SO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS.

NOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED...THERE IS A
BETTER HISTORY OF INITIAL MOTION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE 270/13.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS A
CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  IN
FACT...LATEST GFDL BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SIMILAR TO IRIS.  IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE BUSY FOR A FEW MORE
DAYS.  

BARBADOS HAS ALREADY ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.  ALL INTERESTS
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 11.0N  52.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 11.3N  54.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 11.8N  56.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 12.5N  59.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 13.5N  61.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 14.0N  64.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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