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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN IS 
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION. SO A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND 
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR TWO. A 
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL REACH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.   
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE 
DEPRESSION. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS 
INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE 
TRACK GUIDANCE.  

ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. 
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 11.2N  51.1W    25 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 12.0N  53.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 12.5N  55.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 13.5N  58.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 14.0N  60.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N  63.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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