HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2001

THE CENTER OF IRIS IS NOW MOVING 265/19 OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
EASTERN MEXICO.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...
ALTHOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1004 MB BASED ON A
1004.9 MB OBSERVATION AT COMITAN MEXICO.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
DECREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IRIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HR.  THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE CENTER WILL EMERGE INTO THE PACIFIC AND
REFORM.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER AT BEST RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH 24 HR...BY WHICH TIME IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH OF THE CENTER LEFT TO REDEVELOP.  THUS...DISSIPATION
IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HR.  HOWEVER...A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT TRACK COULD GIVE IRIS THE SEA ROOM IT NEEDS TO REFORM.
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON IRIS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE PACIFIC.
IF SUCH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE SYSTEM WILL RETAIN THE NAME
IRIS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 16.1N  92.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     10/0000Z 15.9N  95.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     10/1200Z 15.9N  98.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     11/0000Z 16.3N 101.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN