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TROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2001

THE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING OVER LAND AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT IRIS 
HAS WEAKENED TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH BY NOW.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT 
THE SMALL INNER CORE WILL BE LARGELY DESTROYED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN 
OF GUATEMALA AND EASTERN MEXICO...WHERE ELEVATIONS RANGE FROM ABOUT 
5000 TO 10000 FEET.  THEREFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SHOWN AS 
DISSIPATING IN 12 HOURS.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO TO THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE ABLE TO 
SURVIVE...AND REGENERATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC.  

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST... 
260/18...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE.  
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

BECAUSE OF THE FAIRLY FAST FORWARD SPEED...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL 
TOTALS HAVE BEEN DECREASED.  HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF 
INLAND FLOODING IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRIS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 16.0N  90.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.8N  93.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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