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HURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2001
 
THE BELIZE RADAR AS WELL AS INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 
IRIS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF MONKEY RIVER BELIZE AT 
APPROXIMATELY 10 PM EDT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 130 KTS BASED UPON DVORAK OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.  THIS 
WAS SUBSTANTIATED SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER BY A RECON WHICH MEASURED A 
127 KT SURFACE WIND VIA A DROPSONDE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF IRIS HAS REMAINED ALMOST CONSTANT AT 260/19
BASED UPON BOTH THE RECON AND BELIZE RADAR CENTER FIXES.  THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES IRIS RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ON A
WESTERLY TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY
AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF IRIS WILL NOT SURVIVE THE
PASSAGE INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/RHOME
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 16.4N  88.7W   120 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  92.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     10/0000Z 15.9N  95.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING

 
 
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