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TROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH IRIS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER REPORTED 998 MB
AND NO CHANGE IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55
KNOTS. HOWEVER THE PLANE REPORTED A CLOSED WALL OF 20 N MI WITH A
STADIUM EFFECT. THE CIRCULATION OF IRIS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH
THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...LIMITING THE STRENGTHENING. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
IRIS IS MOVING 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AND THE STEERING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THEREFORE...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...SO
IRIS COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL
MODELS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 16.7N 71.2W 55 KTS
12HR VT 07/0000Z 17.5N 73.5W 65 KTS
24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.5N 76.5W 70 KTS
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.0N 79.5W 75 KTS
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W 80 KTS
72HR VT 09/1200Z 20.0N 86.0W 85 KTS
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