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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2001

CONVECTION HAS MARKED INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...WHETHER
THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY HAS A LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL IN DOUBT DUE
TO OBSCURING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT MIGHT DEFINE IT.  THE CENTER
IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD MASS
NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT
DEPRESSION UNTIL EITHER FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY OR A RECON
FLIGHT LATER TODAY INDICATE OTHERWISE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/15.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED BY A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND LARGE-
SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AROUND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK WILL BASICALLY BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK.  THE NEW TRACK IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BASED
ON THE IDEA THAT IF THE CYCLONE ORGANIZES IT SHOULD GET STEERED A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
CYCLONE BETWEEN THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH...AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STRETCHING OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT IS UNDERWAY.  WHAT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON IS
HOW STRONG THAT FLOW WILL BE.  THE AVN AND THE NOGAPS SHOW A RATHER 
UNFAVORABLE 30-50 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 36 HR...WHILE
THE UKMET SHOWS 25-40 KT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MORE
FAVORABLE WINDS NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK.  DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE STRONGEST FLOW...THE POSSIBILITIES
RANGE FROM THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST OF HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR
TO DISSIPATION.  THE GDFL IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AS IS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES
BEYOND 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 14.0N  63.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.9N  65.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N  68.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.9N  70.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N  73.2W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N  77.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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