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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2001
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO IS DEGENERATING.  THE 
CONVECTION SHOWS LESS BANDING AND IS BECOMING AMORPHOUS AS THE 
CYCLONE ACCELERATES EASTWARD.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL 
ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE COOL SSTS...20 TO 23C...IT 
IS UNLIKELY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE MAKING IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT.  

HUMBERTO IS RIDING ALONG A STRONG SST GRADIENT...AND IN FACT WILL BE 
PASSING OVER WARMER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE 
WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY SO CONTINUED 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  AS IT 
ACCELERATES...IT MAY LOSE ITS SURFACE CIRCULATION BEFORE BECOMING 
EXTRATROPICAL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK UPDATES THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 42.4N  50.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 42.2N  45.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 41.5N  37.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  30.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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