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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
EVEN THOUGH A WEAKENING TREND WAS ESTABLISHED LAST NIGHT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
CLOUD PATTERN.  ALSO OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT.  SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED ONLY 5 KNOTS TO
75 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR SLOWER WEAKENING THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL FOR 48 HOURS AND THEN AGREES WITH THE SHIPS MODEL
BRINGING THE WIND SPEED DOWN TO 50 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME
THE SSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 20-22 DEGREE C RANGE AND HUMBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE GFDL... UKMET AND AVN MODELS ALL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH THROUGH 48 HOURS OR SO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS MODEL AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 35.4N  66.3W    75 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 36.8N  65.6W    70 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 38.9N  63.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 40.6N  61.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 42.1N  58.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 43.0N  51.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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