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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2001
 
EVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE...WITH PLENTY OF BANDING...CONVECTION...AND OUTFLOW...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM DID NOT FIND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CIRCULATION TO MAKE A
FORMAL CENTER FIX.  HOWEVER...THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MISSION
DO SHOW A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION ALOFT.  DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS STILL PROVIDING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW...AND SOUTH OF A SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MAJOR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE U.S. EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.
THE 12Z AVIATION HAD A BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN
AND...AS EXPECTED...WAS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUN.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE 
FASTER.

IF THE DEPRESSION CAN EDGE AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW THERE WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...IF THE AVN IS
RIGHT...THE SHEAR WILL NOT LESSEN SOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 26.1N  65.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 27.0N  67.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 28.4N  68.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 29.7N  69.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  70.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 35.5N  70.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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