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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
RECENT GOES-8 IR AND NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING GABRIELLE MAY BE TAKING
ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING
TO BECOME DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND TAKE GABRIELLE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS
OR SO.
FORECASTER AVILA/COBB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 37.3N 61.8W 55 KTS
12HR VT 18/1200Z 38.8N 59.0W 50 KTS
24HR VT 19/0000Z 41.3N 55.4W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 19/1200Z 44.0N 51.5W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 20/0000Z 46.5N 47.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/0000Z 49.5N 37.5W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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