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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001
 
AIR FORCE RECON REPORTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM HAS BECOME 
ELONGATED...MORE LIKE A TROUGH.   THEIR DATA ALSO INDICATED LITTLE 
OR NO TEMPERATURE RISE AT THE 850 MB CENTER.  THESE OBSERVATIONS 
SUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING 
EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST...AS IN THE 
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING OVER WARM 
WATERS...AND THEREFORE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE AT TROPICAL 
RE-DEVELOPMENT.  THUS GABRIELLE IS BEING KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FOR NOW.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES DO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE OF 
CONVECTION NEAR THE BROAD CENTER.

THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF WESTERLIES AND THE 
STEERING CURRENT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS GABRIELLE MOVES FARTHER TO 
THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A 
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONES.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 
LATEST AVN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A RATHER GOOD JOB WITH 
GABRIELLE.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 31.1N  76.2W    50 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 31.9N  74.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     17/0600Z 33.0N  71.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     17/1800Z 34.0N  68.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/0600Z 35.5N  65.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  59.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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