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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001
 
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/12...GABRIELLE SEEMS TO BE
RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE GUIDANCE AGREES CLOSELY
ON A CONTINUED NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS AS THE STORM IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
SHIPS REPORTS INDICATE THE WINDS ARE UP TO 50 KNOTS NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER NOT FAR FROM THE US EAST COAST.  THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF 50
KNOT WIND SPEEDS IN OTHER QUADRANTS FROM RECON AND GOES CLOUD DRIFT
WINDS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO 50 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH 72
HOURS.  ONLY THE GFDL FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
GABRIELLE DOES NOT APPEAR VERY TROPICAL ON INFRARED IMAGES.  ALL OF
THE CONVECTION IS NORTH OR EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS 30 KNOTS OR MORE IN THE AVIATION MODEL.  SO IF GABRIELLE DOES
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...IT WILL PROBABLY DO SO AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM WITH A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...UNLESS THE WARM GULFSTREAM
SSTS PLAY A ROLE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 30.8N  77.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 31.8N  75.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     17/0000Z 33.3N  72.6W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     17/1200Z 34.7N  70.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/0000Z 36.1N  67.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/0000Z 39.0N  62.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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