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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
AS USUAL IN THIS SHEARED SYSTEM...THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
AND IT APPEARS TO KEEP RE-FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...992 OR 993 MB...THE RECON REPORTED A BAND A
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...70 TO 75 KNOTS...NEARING THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF 9 KNOTS. THIS FASTER MOTION WILL
BRING THE CENTER INLAND IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND RAINS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER AND ARE
ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. DO NOT FOCUS ON
THE CENTER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS FLORIDA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER WATER IN THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN
24 AND 36 HOURS.
IN TERMS OF CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IT COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA. SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR WHEN IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 26.1N 83.1W 60 KTS
12HR VT 14/1800Z 27.0N 82.1W 60 KTS
24HR VT 15/0600Z 28.2N 81.0W 50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1800Z 29.5N 80.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 16/0600Z 30.5N 78.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 17/0600Z 33.5N 72.0W 60 KTS
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