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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE MORE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED
UP A BIT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE SOON TO GIVE A
MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF BOTH INTENSITY AND LOCATION. AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS
MODIFIED THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASED THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST AVN RUN...THIS SMALL TROUGH MOVES VERY SLOWLY AND IF THIS
VERIFIES...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE.
THE CENTER MAY BE MEANDERING...OR REFORMING WITHIN THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND AVN MODELS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL SHOWS VERY
LITTLE MOTION...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN TAKING IT
GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE DIVERSE OPTIONS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 25.5N 85.4W 30 KTS
12HR VT 13/0600Z 25.5N 85.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 13/1800Z 26.2N 86.2W 40 KTS
36HR VT 14/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W 45 KTS
48HR VT 14/1800Z 27.9N 85.2W 50 KTS
72HR VT 15/1800Z 29.0N 83.0W 65 KTS
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