HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE 
BETTER ORGANIZED.  EAST GULF BUOY 42003 HAS A PRESSURE BELOW 1008 MB 
AND A 24-HR PRESSURE DROP OF MORE THAN 4 MB.  DEEP CONVECTION 
REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO NORTHERLY 
SHEAR...BUT BANDED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/05. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
WIDELY DIVERGENT AFTER 36 HOURS ON WHICH DIRECTION TO TAKE ERIN.  
NOGAPS TAKES ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER MODEL.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD LIFT OUT LATER TODAY 
AND POSSIBLY CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  HOWEVER...BY 
36 TO 48 HOURS...A SHORTAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS 
FOREACST TO DROP DOWN AND GRADUALLY PICK UP THE CYCLONE AND BEGIN 
MOVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED 
CLOSELY AND THE OFFICIAL FORWCAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE 
PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO 
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.  HOWEVER... BY 
36 TO 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE 
WEAK AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION 
BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN BY 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 25.7N  85.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 25.8N  86.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 26.4N  86.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 27.2N  86.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 28.0N  86.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 29.0N  84.0W    60 KTS
 
 
NNNN