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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATING 25 
KNOTS. THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY BUOY 44765...WHICH 
IS NEAR THE CENTER OF FELIX AND HAS BEEN INDICATING A STEADY RISE IN 
PRESSURE.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST...OR 090/02.
A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD SINCE FELIX IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND REMAINS EMBEDDED IN 
WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE GLOBAL 
MODELS...WHICH DRIFT THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH. 
 
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE FORECAST TRACK 
REMAINS OVER COLD SSTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL HAMPER THE 
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 34.7N  31.6W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     19/0600Z 34.5N  31.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     19/1800Z 33.9N  31.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED
36HR VT     20/0600Z 33.4N  31.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     20/1800Z 32.9N  32.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     21/1800Z 32.0N  33.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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