ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 8 KNOTS OR LESS...AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BYPASSES THE AREA. FELIX IS EMBEDDED IN A
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
FOR A WHILE. NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
RIGHT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THIS GUIDANCE.
DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NO LONGER BE A
HURRICANE. MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IS MAINTAINED ON THIS
ADVISORY...AS EARLIER BUOY OBSERVATIONS IMPLIED THAT FELIX IS
SOMEHWAT STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. SINCE
OCEAN WATERS ARE NOT VERY WARM...SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 35.5N 31.3W 65 KTS
12HR VT 17/1800Z 36.2N 30.6W 60 KTS
24HR VT 18/0600Z 36.4N 29.4W 60 KTS
36HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 28.2W 55 KTS
48HR VT 19/0600Z 36.5N 27.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 20/0600Z 36.0N 24.5W 50 KTS
NNNN
Problems?