[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AN EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE METEOSAT-7
INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES...WHICH MAKES POSITION FIXES A LITTLE
EASIER.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF AN ECLIPSE...THE OO00 UTC PICTURE WAS
NOT AVAILABLE.  THE 0000 UTC POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
SATELLITE FIXES AT 2200 AND 2300 UTC AND SHOWS THAT AT THIS TIME
FELIX WAS MOVING ON A DUE EAST TRACK AT ABOUT 16 KTS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT FELIX SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST...AND THUS MY 0300 UTC TRACK
DIRECTION WILL BE 070/16.    

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING.  FELIX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND THEN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT TRACKS AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.  DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS
LARGE LOW HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEAKEN.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AND THEIR FORECAST TRACKS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER
THROUGH 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY.  NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODELS SLOW DOWN FELIX IN 24
HOURS AND MAKE THE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY IN 48 HOURS ABOUT 180
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND THEN TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT.  THE AVN MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE FELIX
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A POSITON ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF
LAJES IN 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL MODEL TAKES FELIX TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THEN ACTUALLY TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALMOST ON TOP
OF ITS PREVIOUS 36 HOUR FORECAST TRACK.  THE AVN FORECAST TRACK WAS
CLOSELY FOLLOWED GIVEN ITS EXCELLENT FORECAST RESULTS WITH FELIX.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB...77 KT FORM
SAB...AND 65 KT FORM AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE LEFT AT 85 KT.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...AND SSTS ARE WILL BE ABOVE 25C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF FELIX SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN TO MUCH LESS
THAN 60-KT AT 72 HOURS SINCE SSTS ARE ONLY ABOUT 23-24C IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 32.4N  35.3W    85 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 33.2N  33.2W    80 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 34.5N  31.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 35.5N  30.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 36.0N  29.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 36.0N  27.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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