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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
 
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY 
CLASSIFICATIONS.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
PACKAGE SUGGESTING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. 
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS 
ONE.  THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER 
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE.  AT 72 
HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER 25 DEG C WATER TEMPERATURES AND WILL 
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/13.  THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF FELIX AND ONLY DISAGREE IN
THE SPEED OF MOTION IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS.  THE FORECAST
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE AVN AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE AND
NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AT LONGER RANGES...WHILE APPROACHING THE AZORES...FELIX MAY SLOW
DOWN AS INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 29.7N  45.6W   100 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 30.7N  43.8W   100 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 31.8N  41.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 32.3N  38.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 33.1N  34.9W    90 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 35.5N  29.4W    80 KTS
 
 
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