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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
FELIX HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATED FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 
5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUIVALENT TO 90 KNOTS. THE WATER IS 
EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND THE SHEAR LOW...THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY 
CLOSE TO GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH ABOUT 11 KNOTS AND IS ABOUT THE
REACH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ENTER INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST IS
ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS NO REASON TO DISCUSS THE MODELS...THEY ARE
ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

FELIX IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 26.4N  48.4W    90 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  47.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 29.5N  45.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  38.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  32.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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