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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
FELIX IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES...PARTIALLY-CONTAMINATED QUIKSCAT WIND DATA...AND AN SSMI 
DOUGHNUT-SHAPE.  THE GFDL STILL TAKES THE WIND TO 100 KNOTS WHILE 
SHIPS GOES TO 82 KNOTS UNDER FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO SHIPS.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN.  FELIX CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
IN 24 HOURS OR SO EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS.  
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 24.2N  48.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 25.5N  48.6W    70 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 27.6N  47.6W    80 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 29.5N  45.4W    85 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 30.7N  42.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W    80 KTS
  
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