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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION
WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.  DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT WINDS HAVE REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SEVEN IS BEING
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FELIX AT THIS TIME.  FELIX COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE SHEAR 
INCREASES.

BECAUSE THE CENTER REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM OVERALL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST
AT 10 KNOTS.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF FELIX WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER...FELIX IS
FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SO A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 18.9N  47.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 20.0N  48.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 21.5N  49.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  49.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  49.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 27.0N  49.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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