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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES
AND A NEARBY BUOY REPORT INDICATING A PRESSURE OF 1003.9 MB.
HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED THE CONVECTION...SO I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE INTENSITY
JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE UNTIL THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. ALL OF THE MODELS NOW AT
LEAST AGREE ON THE DEPRESSION SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE AVN MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM ALMOST
DUE NORTH FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE BASED
ON THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH AND SO THAT AVN SOLUTION WAS
DISCOUNTED. THE GFDL MODEL AND ALL THREE BAM MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD SPEED TO AROUND
4 KT BY 72 HOURS.
ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF
THE DEPRESSION CONTRACTS AND THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 17.9N 48.2W 30 KTS
12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.7N 49.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 12/0600Z 19.8N 50.7W 40 KTS
36HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 51.5W 45 KTS
48HR VT 13/0600Z 22.3N 52.2W 50 KTS
72HR VT 14/0600Z 24.8N 52.8W 60 KTS
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