HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2001
 
LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY DID NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS 
SYSTEM HAS THE CIRCULATION OF A BONA FIDE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND 
NEITHER DID THE QUIKSCAT PASS VALID AT 21Z...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWED 
A SHARP WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS.  THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING 
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...BUT IT IS WELL TO THE EAST OF WHATEVER CENTER 
THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE.  THE QUIKSCAT DID SHOW A COUPLE OF NON-FLAGGED 
WIND VECTORS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT I AM NOT PREPARED TO 
UPGRADE A SYSTEM THAT I WOULD PREFER TO DOWNGRADE.  IT IS 
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THAT YET ANOTHER CENTER COULD DEVELOP 
FROM THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION...IN WHICH CASE WE WOULD HAVE A 
TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE BEST COURSE FOR NOW IS TO MAINTAIN THE 
STATUS QUO UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY IN THE MORNING.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
ALL THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHARPLY RECURVING TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS A 72 HOUR POSITION ABOUT 240 NM 
WEST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 17.5N  47.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  48.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 19.1N  50.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 20.2N  51.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 21.5N  51.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  51.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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