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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001
 
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INDICATE TWO
DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WNW MOTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WHILE A WEAKER CIRCULATION FOUND SE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED E OF THE NORTHERN VORTEX AND THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SHIFTED N TO REFLECT THIS FACT.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.0 FROM TAFB WITH SAB AND AFGW AT 1.0 AND 1.5
RESPECTIVELY...  INDICATIVE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER
LOCATION.  BECAUSE OF THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE
HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.

USING THE MEAN POSITION OF THE 2 CENTERS...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 285/11.  THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION
REMAINS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHICH CENTER..IF
EITHER...WILL BECOME DOMINANT.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD A MEAN CENTER LOCATION.  THIS IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
MODEL SUITE.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH DID A REASONABLY
GOOD JOB OF INITIALIZING THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM...INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SOMEWHAT SOONER THAN
SHOWN HERE.

FORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 16.3N  46.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N  47.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  48.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N  49.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N  50.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 22.0N  51.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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