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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001
 
DESPITE THE GOOD SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY...THE DEPRESSION...YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM THIS YEAR...HAS FAILED TO STRENGTHEN.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH A FEW BANDS OF CONVECTION.  IT SEEMS THAT THE THREE
WAVES IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE TOO CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AND ARE
INTERFERING WITH EACH OTHERS INFLOW.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER INDICATES STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS
SUGGESTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSERVATIVE
AND THE DEPRESSION MAY DEGRADE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.  WHILE SHEAR AND
SSTS HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...IT IS
UNKNOWN WHY THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE
DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC SO FAR. ONE COULD SPECULATE THAT THE 
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN MORE STABLE THAN NORMAL...INHIBITING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THAT IS HARD TO PROVE.

THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BEEN 280/14 AND THIS
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 15.2N  33.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.5N  35.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  38.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N  41.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N  44.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 18.5N  47.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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