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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF 
MOTION.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS A STRONG RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH...BUT WITH SOME WEAKENING IN 72 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE 
TRACK ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH 
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS 
SHIFTED SLIGHTELY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION ON 
INFRARED IMAGERY WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.  
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF 
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND STRENGTHENING 
TO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MODEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 15.0N  31.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 15.7N  33.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.3N  36.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.7N  39.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.3N  42.3W    60 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N  46.0W    70 KTS
  
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