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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A FEW SPARSE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS BASED ON THE 
PRESENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW .  THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN.  BEST ESTIMATE IS 280/16.  THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED
BECAUSE SOME MODELS PRODUCE AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION...MAKING THE STEERING FLOW NON-DESCRIPT.  IF
I DID NOT HAVE THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND I AM GLAD I HAVE THEM...THE
TRACK FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A STRAIGHT WESTWARD MOTION DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE MODELS EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE THE HIGH AND LEAVE AN
OPENING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ESCAPE NORTHWARD.  WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 14.5N  30.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N  33.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.5N  37.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.0N  40.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 16.5N  42.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N  45.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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