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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001

ERIN STILL SHOWS AN EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 65 KT FROM SAB.
A RECENT SSM/I PASS SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME
RATHER ASYMMETRIC...WHICH IS POSSIBLY THE FIRST EFFECT OF COOLER
WATER ON THE HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.
ERIN SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 36-48 HR.
 
ERIN IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
035/11.  A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS LIKELY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GUIDANCE AND NUDGED JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 41.1N  58.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 42.5N  57.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 45.7N  53.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 50.0N  49.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     16/0000Z 56.0N  43.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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