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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
HURRICANE ERIN HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN AT SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE AND 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE CYCLONE IS STILL AROUND 
75 KT INTENSITY.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND FAIR 
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT 
HAS BEEN MOVING ERIN EASTWARD TODAY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE 
NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ERIN TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT AND MUCH LARGER TROUGH 
FINALLY PICKS UP ERIN FOR GOOD.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF 
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... 
AND THE BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO PULL THE 
CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  THIS 
SCENARIO IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE DEEP VERTICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN...ONLY SLOW 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES MUCH COLDER WATER IN 
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES 
SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT...HINTING THAT ERIN MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD
ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 38.0N  62.9W    75 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 38.1N  61.6W    70 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 38.7N  59.9W    65 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  58.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 41.4N  56.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 44.5N  53.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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