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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001

ERIN REMAINS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THE 
EYE IS A LITTLE RAGGED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED 
FROM 06Z...SO CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS.  SLOW 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  AT THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD...ERIN MAY BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

ERIN IS WOBBLING...BUT HAS FINALLY TURNED TO THE EAST OF 
NORTH...INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/06...BUT IT MAY BE EVEN MORE 
TO THE RIGHT.  ERIN SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD TO 
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. 
COAST.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD 
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE ERIN.   THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS 
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD
ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 37.6N  65.5W    80 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 38.3N  64.5W    80 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 38.9N  62.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 39.5N  60.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 40.5N  58.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 45.0N  53.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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