HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001
 
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN REMAINS A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED 
SYSTEM...WITH THE CLASSIC SIGNATURE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE 30 N 
MI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS 
FORECAST SINCE ERIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAIRLY WARM...HIGHER THAN 26 
DEG C...WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE 
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/9.  THE HURRICANE HAS NOT YET TURNED 
TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING...LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  
IT IS PRESUMED THAT...AS ERIN GAINS MORE LATITUDE...THE EFFECT OF 
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIMINISH.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE 
NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT 
ERIN IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN.  THEN...AROUND THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND INCREASE THE MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  IN 
THE MEANTIME...ERIN'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 35.4N  64.8W   105 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 36.5N  65.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 37.5N  64.3W    95 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 38.2N  62.4W    90 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 39.0N  60.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 41.5N  56.0W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN