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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2001
 
THE LAST RECON REPORTED 114 KT WINDS AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL...
WHICH MAINTAINS THE 105 KNOT SURFACE WIND SPEED.  SATELLITE DEVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO COMING IN AT BETWEEN 100 AND 105 KNOTS.
EVEN THOUGH THE REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE...NOW AT 969 MB...IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FOR A HURRICANE OF
THIS STRENGTH...THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE ALSO HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE IN THIS AREA.  NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT SINCE SSTS REMAIN WARM ALONG THE TRACK OF
ERIN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ERIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD HER OWN
FOR A WHILE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THAT
SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

ERINS INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO SLOW...DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...ERIN SHOULD
BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND START TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
TRACK WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK AGAIN 
FALLS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 33.7N  63.5W   105 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 34.8N  64.0W   105 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 36.0N  64.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 37.0N  63.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 38.2N  61.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 40.0N  58.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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