HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001
 
ALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL 994 MB...THE RECON
REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KNOTS PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS.  THIS
IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING ERIN TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION...  TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT HURRICANE STATUS.
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A WELL DEFINED CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER AND A BANDING TYPE EYE MAY BE FORMING.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AND
THE OCEAN IS WARM SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.
 
ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS. THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST IS BUILDING SO ERIN COULD MOVE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. IN FACT...BOTH NOGAPS AND UK MODELS MOVE THE HURRICANE
NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE AVN IS A LITTLE BIT TO
THE RIGHT...BUT VERY NEAR THE ISLAND TOO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT HURRICANE
WARNINGS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN AND
ERIN MAY SLOW DOWN AGAIN.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 29.0N  60.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 30.5N  62.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 32.5N  64.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 34.5N  65.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 36.0N  66.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 37.5N  66.0W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN