HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2001

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN HAVE IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED...THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  LATEST QUIKSCAT HAS THE CENTER
ERRONEOUSLY DISPLACED THE CIRCULATION ABOUT 140 N MI TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ESTIMATED CENTER. 

PERHAPS...ERIN HAS ALREADY REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE GROUND TRUTH
WHICH WILL BE PROVIDED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE LATER TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND ERIN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
BY 72 HOURS OR LESS.  BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BRING ERIN TO
HURRICANE STATUS.

A TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE NORTH OF ERIN WEAKENED THE
STEERING CURRENTS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIN
IN A DAY OR SO.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE ERIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST.  ON THIS TRACK...BERMUDA IS THE ONLY LAND AREA WHICH
COULD BE THREATENED BY ERIN.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO NCEP/AVN AND GFDL.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 24.8N  57.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 25.0N  58.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.5N  59.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 28.0N  60.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 29.5N  61.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 32.0N  64.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN