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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING OVER ERIN'S REMNANTS AND FOUND A
POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL IN RAINBANDS. THIS IS A NEW CENTER WHICH HAS FORMED TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE OLD ONE DISSIPATED AND WITHIN THE AREA OF
DEEP CONVENTION AND MID-LEVEL ROTATION. HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND TO THE
NORTH. THE SHEAR IS FINALLY RELAXING AND THE WATER IS WARM...SO ERIN
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.
 
THE POSITION OF THE NEW CENTER DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE MOTION OF
THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT IT IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK ONLY A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 23.3N  58.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N  59.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 24.8N  60.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 25.5N  61.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  62.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 28.0N  63.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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