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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/15.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS A 
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REFLECT THIS WITH TRACK HEADINGS 
ALL BETWEEN ABOUT 290 AND 310 DEGREE HEADINGS.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE MODEL 
TRACKS.

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK 
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE THERE IS A GOOD PATTERN OF BANDING AND 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT THAT WELL 
ORGANIZED.  THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODEL IS SHIPS 
WHICH BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 75 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 13.7N  39.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 14.3N  41.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 15.1N  44.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N  47.2W    70 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.8N  49.8W    75 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N  54.5W    75 KTS
  
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