ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DETERIORATED
MARKEDLY...WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHEARING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT WILL BE LEFT WHEN THE CENTER
EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...IF IN FACT IT DOES.
THE CENTER IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIX...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH MUCH OF IT SEEMINGLY AFFECTED BY THE TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE AVN AND GFDL...WHICH DO NOT
BRING CHANTAL INTO THE GULF. IF CHANTAL DOES EMERGE OVER WATER...A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE U.S. GULF STATES SHOULD KEEP CHANTAL ON
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. EVEN THE AVN NOW DEVELOPS ONLY A VERY SMALL UPPER-LEVEL
AREA FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER CHANTAL...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 18.8N 90.4W 25 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT 22/1200Z 19.0N 91.5W 25 KTS...OVER WATER
24HR VT 23/0000Z 19.3N 93.2W 35 KTS
36HR VT 23/1200Z 19.5N 94.9W 45 KTS
48HR VT 24/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
72HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
NNNN
Problems?