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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THE CYCLONE IS
THUS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
WITH TIME...WITH CHANTAL FOLLOWING A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK TO ITS SOUTH.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGAIN AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN SPEED NOTED EARLIER
CONTINUE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE 
PREVIOUS PACKAGE SINCE CHANTAL SEEMS TO BE MORE OR LESS ON THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

CHANTAL SHOULD REMAIN A DEPRESSION WHILE OVER YUCATAN AS THE 
CIRCULATION IS NOW TOO WELL DEFINED FOR THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE TIME IT WILL BE OVER LAND.  THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN SHOWING
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW DURING THE DAY...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER
THE WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 
PACKAGE...CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER AND RAPID WEAKENING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO AFTER LANDFALL.  IF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE FORECAST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...CHANTAL MAY MAKE YET ANOTHER
BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST BASED ON THE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION
AFTER CHANTAL MOVES OFFSHORE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 18.7N  89.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.9N  90.7W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.3N  92.4W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.6N  94.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.8N  96.2W    55 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N  99.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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