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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HUNTED VERY
HARD...GOOD JOB...AND FOUND A SMALL 1010 MB CIRCULATION CENTER.
THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ARE BEING
RESUMED.
THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A
SLOW STRENGTHENING...A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN
CHANTAL ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE
MORE FAVORABLE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MAINTAINING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF CHANTAL. THIS FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A
CONTINUATION OF A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 13.2N 65.2W 30 KTS
12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 69.0W 40 KTS
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 73.5W 50 KTS
36HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 77.4W 60 KTS
48HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 81.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 85.0W 80 KTS
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