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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2001
 
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION WITHIN ITS LARGE CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS STILL POORLY DEFINED AND APPEARS 
TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
THE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.  IN 
ADDITION...THE NOAA/NESDIS TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS PARAMETER FOR 
THAT REGION SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE MORE 
FAVORABLE THAN CLIMATOLOGY.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL 
MAKES THIS SYSTEM A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS.  SUCH A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS 
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE LATEST GFDL AND UKMET MODEL RUNS 
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS AND THERE IS A STRONG 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  WITH THE 
INITIATION OF ADVISORIES...SUBSEQUENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL 
PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST OF THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. 

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 12.3N  45.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.5N  48.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 12.5N  52.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.0N  55.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N  58.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N  62.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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