HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2001
 
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORT AT 06/0451 FOUND A 700 MB 
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...JUST OFFSHORE. 
USING THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A 64 KT 
SURFACE WIND...WHICH WOULD HAVE MADE BARRY A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT 
LANDFALL. THIS MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL REPORT ON THIS SYSTEM.  
HOWEVER...BARRY WILL BE KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM ON ALL OF THE 
OPERATIONAL ADVISORY PRODUCTS.  SURFACE FRICTION MAY HAVE HELPED TO 
TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION DURING AND SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL AS 
INDICATED BY THE RECENT 50 TO 55 KT WIND GUSTS REPORTED BY EGLIN AFB 
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. 

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/08.  BARRY INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED
TO AROUND 10-11 KT AT LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THERE IS EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON BARRY SLOWING AND TURNING
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.  THE AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST PERFORMING DYNAMICAL MODEL BY FAR...IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF ALL
THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE IMMEDIATE SHARP NORTHWESTERLY TURN SHOWN BY
THE AVN SEEMS A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES
BETWEEN THE AVN TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THIS TRACK
IS ALSO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINING MODEL SUITE AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TO STEER BARRY
MOVE WESTWRAD WITH TIME.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOW FORWARD
SPEED OF ONLY 3-5 KT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND INTO ARKANSAS AFTER 24
HOURS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SERIOUS INLAND 
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.

BARRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY SPIN DOWN NOW THAT THE 
CIRCULATION IS WELL INLAND.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED 
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KT IN SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER BASED 
ON DOPPLER RADAR INDICATIONS OF MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION IN SOME OF 
THE CELLS.  FOR THIS REASON...THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST 
INTENSITY INTENSITY WAS KEPT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR AN 
INLAND DECAYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY ALSO HELP TO 
GENERATE MORE DEEP CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND BRING SOME OF THE 
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 31.0N  86.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 32.1N  87.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     07/0600Z 33.1N  88.2W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
36HR VT     07/1800Z 33.9N  89.4W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT     08/0600Z 34.5N  90.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
72HR VT     09/0600Z 35.5N  91.0W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 
 
NNNN