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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001
 
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT BARRY HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HOLDING AROUND 992 MB.
WSR-88D OBSERVATIONS SHOW TRANSIENT EYEWALL FORMATIONS BUT OVERALL
THE INNER CORE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER DEFINED...WITH A MOSTLY OPEN
EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  IR IMAGES SHOW SOME BURSTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING IS STILL
EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE SHEAR WILL ABATE BEFORE LANDFALL...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION IS QUICKLY CLOSING.

BARRY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...010/07...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE LATEST NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER. THE LARGE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. SHOULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE
PROGRESS OF BARRYS REMNANTS.  THUS...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 29.9N  86.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.9N  86.4W    50 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     07/0000Z 32.2N  87.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT     07/1200Z 33.5N  88.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND
48HR VT     08/0000Z 34.0N  89.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND
72HR VT     09/0000Z 35.0N  90.5W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND
 
 
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